Nvidia Slips Ahead Of Report. 'Expect A Very Noisy' Outlook. (Live)

Artificial intelligence powerhouse Nvidia (NVDA) will report its fiscal first-quarter results after the market close Wednesday. The big question on the minds of stock investors is: How much did the Trump administration's China trade restrictions hurt Nvidia?

Check back here for live coverage of Nvidia's earnings report and commentary ahead of the news.

↑ X NOW PLAYING Nvidia Earnings: AI Titan Faces Key Questions On Production, China Exports

Analysts polled by FactSet expect Nvidia to earn an adjusted 73 cents a share on sales of $43.34 billion in the quarter ended April 27. In the year-earlier period, Nvidia earned an adjusted 61 cents a share on sales of $26.04 billion.

Nvidia warned that it will take a charge of "up to approximately $5.5 billion" for H20 inventory that the Trump administration blocked the company from selling to China. The size of the actual Q1 charge will be a focus area of Nvidia's report.

The U.S. government notified Nvidia on April 9 that it will need to get export licenses to sell its H20 processor in China and other restricted markets. The move effectively barred Nvidia from selling the throttled processor, which it designed to meet previous U.S. export restrictions.

On Tuesday, Nvidia stock rose 3.2% to close at 135.50.

11:12 a.m. E.T.

Nvidia Stock: 'Expect A Very Noise Guide'

Nvidia stock still in the red in late morning trades.

The AI giant's shares have been a market laggard over the past year, Mizuho Securities trading-desk analyst Jordan Klein said in a client note Wednesday. But some investors believe it could be a "catch-up trade" if Nvidia "can give anything better than expected in terms of outlook, Blackwell ramp, new China revenues."

He added, "Gun to head, I would rather be long vs. short the stock today into the print. That said, I am starting to worry a bit with stock up so much (these) past few weeks into the print, given I expect a very noisy and potentially disappointing July-quarter guide."

10:30 a.m. E.T

'A Little Bit Of A Scare Factor'

Nvidia stock edged lower an hour into the trading session. Shares were off a fraction at 135.24 ahead of the tech giant's Q1 report.

The spotlight will be on the impact of the recent market turmoil triggered by the Trump administration's trade policies and growing geopolitical tensions.

"There's a little bit of a scare factor here," Bloomberg journalist Kriti Gupta said on a Wednesday morning broadcast. "We talk about this every quarter. They're the A plus plus student. There's lofty expectations. This time it's the geopolitics of tariffs and the AI story that kind of meshed together."

9:35 a.m. E.T.

Consensus Numbers Likely 'Stale'

Nvidia stock traded sideways at the opening bell, last up a fraction at 135.57.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore said Tuesday that sell-side analysts haven't fully accounted for the impact of the H20 sales ban in their estimates. So, there's a risk of Nvidia missing views because of "stale" consensus numbers, he said in a client note.

Moore estimates that Nvidia had to take out $1 billion in lost sales to China in the April quarter. It will take out the rest of the write-off in the July quarter, he said.

"Nvidia is clearly lobbying for licenses to ship H20, which can be granted under the current system, or to remove the restrictions altogether," Moore said.

Nvidia argues that cutting off access to China will embolden China to develop a competing domestic hardware ecosystem, which "will ultimately be a bigger issue for the U.S.," Moore said. He rates Nvidia stock as overweight with a price target of 160.

Late Tuesday, the Financial Times reported that Nvidia's hardware partners are accelerating production of the chipmaker's latest Blackwell AI data center racks after resolving technical issues that had delayed shipments. Those partners — including Dell Technologies (DELL), Foxconn, Inventec and Wistron — are now scaling up production of Nvidia GB200 AI racks, the FT said.

Follow Patrick Seitz on X, formerly Twitter, at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.

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