作者:By: Doron Feldman , Ofir Barel
在全球发展高级技术的种族中,许多国家现在认识到,在人工智能(AI)中实现优越性(AI)提供了战略优势,经济繁荣和更大的国际影响力。为此,追求这一途径的国家通过对基础设施,研发和熟练的人力资本进行投资积极促进国内AI生态系统的发展。刺激AI发展的举措通常包括制定行动计划,政策原则和政府法规,这些计划在遵守AI使用中的道德原则的同时,例如保护公民隐私。
本文认为,以色列和沙特阿拉伯之间的归一化过程在AI生态系统发展中汇集了具有互补优势的两个国家。以色列站在技术创新的最前沿,与国家的规模显着更大。但是,在一个关键领域的制定和政府为人工智能计划的规定中不足。相比之下,沙特阿拉伯近年来成为发展和实施广泛国家AI战略的全球领导者。然而,出于本文详细介绍的原因,王国成为中东领先的技术枢纽的野心尚未完全实现。我们认为,尽管以色列 - 哈马斯战争正在进行,但以色列和沙特阿拉伯在AI领域的优势为合作提供了独特的机会。这种合作可以作为催化剂,以加速它们之间的完全归一化。
通过合作的努力来最大化各自的AI能力,以色列和沙特阿拉伯都将获得更大的社会和经济繁荣,并在中东地区的战略地位更强。此外,唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的第二任期始于2025年1月,为振兴了停滞的正常化进程创造了一个新的机会。特朗普的总体战略目标是在与中国的地缘政治竞争中建立美国在AI和其他先进技术中的优势。因此,他的政府有望动员AI领域的全球领先力量。
以色列和沙特阿拉伯之间的外交,战略和经济关系将支持实施预期的对伊朗的最大压力政策,并支持特朗普作为建筑师的遗产亚伯拉罕协议2.0。此外,它将推进印度中部 - 欧洲经济走廊(IMEC)的创建。1这条走廊以沙特阿拉伯和以色列为中心,旨在与中国的腰带和道路倡议竞争。意识到这一愿景是由即将离任的拜登政府发起的,将需要以色列和沙特阿拉伯与AI的核心之间建立完全的合作伙伴关系。
以色列作为AI技术创新的领导者
在过去的十年中,以色列以其创新,网络安全和在与AI商业活动相关的几个关键指标中表现高的能力而闻名。在全球AI指数于2024年9月出版,以色列在83个国家 /地区的商业活动中排名第七,仅次于美国和中国,并在英国,加拿大和德国领先。2根据斯坦福大学AI指数,在2013年至2024年之间,在以色列成立了492家新的AI公司,以以色列在加拿大,法国和德国之前建立的AI公司数量在全球占据了全球。3此外,尽管以色列 - 哈马斯战争正在进行,但以色列在生成AI(AI技术的核心领域之一)领域内拥有一个特别活跃的技术生态系统。
这种活力反映在从事该特定部门的丰富而多样化的公司网络的发展中。从2023年4月的67日到2024年5月,以色列的生产AI公司数量飙升至238。4此外,这些公司运营的子领域范围从17个扩大到27,领先的领域包括销售,安全和医疗保健。在全球舞台上,以色列在AI的领导也很明显。
根据2024年6月的报告以色列创新权威在为特定应用程序开发AI驱动系统(例如代码开发)的大约1,900家公司中,有73个在以色列。该数字将该国定位为该国的第三大,仅次于美国和英国,并在加拿大,中国,法国,德国和印度之前。5此外,以色列的生成AI风险投资生态系统被排名世界第三大,仅次于美国和中国。6
与以色列在为AI开发科学基础设施方面落后于以色列的假设相反,几个国际指数突出了该国培养科学和技术知识的重要能力。例如,根据2024全球创新指数,以色列在科学知识生产中排名第12,而沙特阿拉伯仅排名第52。7以色列的高级排名反映了其相对于其投资,产生更多创新产出的能力,8而沙特阿拉伯的情况则相反。9这种差异可能与以下事实有关:以色列就其人口而言,在熟练的AI专业人员的集中度上,以色列在全球排名前十个国家中排名。这包括经济多个领域的工程专业知识和AI素养。10
在其在技术创新方面的卓越领导的背景下,以色列有利地利用其AI能力来创造与沙特阿拉伯正常化的条件。王国通过其沙特愿景2030倡议,11优先考虑了高级AI基础架构和能力的发展。具体而言,以色列可以在协助沙特阿拉伯实施计划中概述的96个进球中发挥关键作用,即12包括整个王国的智能城市技术的整合,尤其是在未来派的Neom中。13
以色列技术和AI公司已经在车辆交通和水基础设施的智能管理方面已经证明了专业知识。14将这些公司纳入NEOM项目或王国的其他技术企业可以提高利润,在新兴和创新的市场中提供宝贵的经验,并在包括亚洲在内的整个海湾国家及其他地区开放新的商机。此外,以色列可以启动联合计划,在该计划中,以色列企业家和公司协助沙特企业学习如何在AI领域建立技术和商业成功。
沙特阿拉伯在制定国家人工智能政策和以色列的比较弱点方面的领导
尽管以色列在AI创新方面具有领导地位,但必须制定一项全面的国家AI战略,或者从长远来看会失去其相对优势。截至2024年底,该国在规划,预算和连贯的AI政策的制定方面大大落后。15但是火车尚未离开车站。如果以色列在战略上采取行动,它有可能获得大量的经济,社会和安全奖励,增强其区域政治影响力并获得重要的地缘政治杠杆作用。与以色列相反,沙特阿拉伯近年来发起了一系列政府主导的计划,以彻底和战略的方式推进了AI。结果,沙特阿拉伯现在在AI政策中排名全球,以色列排名第32。16
早在2020年,负责塑造该国AI愿景的民族机构的沙特阿拉伯数据和AI管理局(SDAIA)启动了国家AI战略,目的是将王国定位在世界前15名AI领导人中。17为了实现这一目标,SDAIA的战略概述了66项任务的雄心勃勃的目标,包括吸引了200亿美元的本地和外国投资,并开发了一个超过300个AI初创公司的当地生态系统。此外,在2024年,沙特阿拉伯推出了超越项目的基础设施投资1000亿美元,旨在开发当地的AI能力。该计划包括建立尖端数据中心以及与领先的外国技术公司建立合作伙伴关系。18
沙特阿拉伯通过引入旨在确保其领土内数据存储库质量的政策原则提高了AI开发。这些存储库是该国AI系统开发,培训和绩效增强的基础设施。2023年11月,王国启动了国家数据指数,以评估政府部委数据存储库的质量。19它提出的另一个关键步骤是成立了245个办事处,用于监督和改善这些存储库的运营。20同时,沙特阿拉伯通过启动旨在增强公民个人数据保护的数据存储库管理平台来解决信息安全问题。21
如上所述,以色列的AI政策格局截然不同。2020年,领导国家网络总部建立的艾萨克·本·以色列教授和以色列国家网络局长伊迪安·马塔尼亚(Eviatar Matania)教授提出了一项国家AI战略,向本杰明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)总理提出了国家AI战略。该策略包括以下建议:
只有以色列政府将其定义为该国未来的主要且关键的领域,才能实现以色列状态作为该领域的世界领导者并充分利用它的能力并充分利用它。22
但是,由于2019年至2022年之间的五轮快速选举,该策略的批准和实施被推迟了。
国家AI计划于2020年由国家基础设施开发论坛(TELEM)发表,23研究了政府如何在几个关键领域加速AI发展,包括培养人力资本和促进专业知识从学术界转移到工业。由于政治局势的动荡,该计划也未能获得批准。结果,截至2024年11月,以色列没有获得批准且充分资助的综合战略计划来提高其AI能力。取而代之的是,政府正在促进有限的,狭义的计划,例如在希伯来语和阿拉伯语中推进自然语言处理能力。t
在机构一级,两国之间的政策差距也很明显。在沙特阿拉伯,SDAIA是负责制定AI政策原则并促进其在政府和私营部门的创新和负责任的政府机构。24相比之下,以色列目前有两个机构负责推进AI政策原则和计划。第一个是创新与科学部的监管与人工智能政策中心,25 负责制定策略和法规以促进AI的安全使用。第二个是创新管理局的AI计划,该计划支持各个AI领域的研发计划的进步。26
政府打算在总理办事处建立额外的中央人工智能办公室,这可能表明,尽管与沙特阿拉伯相比,以色列的AI政策方法发生了重大变化。27但是,这项倡议将需要解决这些共同使命的各个机构之间的潜在争议,尤其是在权威和预算事项方面。这些机构之间的分裂可能会进一步失望以色列的AI政策,从而有可能减少该国的全球人工智能地位。
劳动力和人工智能技能发展的问题
沙特阿拉伯超过以色列的另一个领域是计划和实施培养熟练AI劳动力的政策原则。尽管以色列在采用AI技能的全球领导者中排名,但它仍面临熟练人员的长期短缺。以色列学术系统每年生产的硕士学位和博士学位少于800名计算机科学,数学和统计学的毕业生,28尽管AI部门对人才的需求超过了至少2400名工人的供应。[29这是给出的根据其他数据,对熟练AI人员的供应和需求之间的差距近四倍。当约15%至21%的高级学位毕业生迁移到国外时,短缺变得更加明显。随着以色列业务生态系统的不断增长,这一差距有望扩大。
2021年,以色列政府批准了旨在培训熟练劳动力的AI研究的建议的一部分。302024年,它发起了更多计划,以扩大这项劳动力,包括在以色列国防军(IDF)内开发专门的训练轨道以及从国外招募AI专家的努力。31但是,随着时间的流逝,这些计划可能不足以维持以色列的技术领导力。随着越来越多的国家在该领域取得卓越成就,必须采取大大增加研究人员供应的措施。
在其在技术创新方面的卓越领导的背景下,以色列有利地利用其AI能力来创造与沙特阿拉伯正常化的条件。
一种可能的解决方案是旨在在小学和中学一级培养AI技能的课程。本·以色列和马塔尼亚在向以色列政府的建议中,强调了促进整个人群数据素养技能的重要性。该倡议不仅将帮助公民在日常生活中有效使用AI,而且还可以帮助培训一群熟练的工人和研究人员。他们提案的一个核心组成部分是将AI纳入国家教育系统中的核心主题。
自2020年出版了本以色列和马塔尼亚的提议以来,已经启动了几项计划以发展AI技能。其中最重要的是科学部于2024年11月发起的每个儿童倡议的AI。该计划使4至6年级的学生可以尝试使用AI工具创建内容和应用程序。32另一个重要的计划是所有人的AI,旨在促进以色列学生和老师的生成AI技能。33这两个程序仍处于早期阶段,还有待观察它们将在多大程度上实施。
相比之下,在2023年,沙特阿拉伯提出了一系列举措,以更广泛的规模培养AI的年轻熟练劳动力。其中包括在全国大约1300所学校中举办AI小时,以提高人们对技术的认识。34为了鼓励卓越,该王国还于2024年举办了第一次国家AI奥运会,拥有超过260,000名学生参与者。35此外,它发起了一项全国性计划,以向一百万公民提供AI培训。36
这些举措补充了《王国2020年国家战略》中概述的目标,该战略旨在培训20,000名AI专家,包括5,000名AI科学家,到2030年。实际上,SDAIA在2024年9月,SDAIA宣布,该目标已经超过,该目标已经超过,拥有38,000多名毕业生,拥有超过38,000名毕业生,持有AI-Relevant Meles degrees培训2019年和2023年之间。37尽管这些计划并没有消除将AI嵌入学校中的核心主题的需求,但它们可能会为寻求开发和实施AI课程的以色列教育当局提供宝贵的教学和行政见解。如果在学校中采用,此类计划可以加速专业人士的培训,并帮助维护对以色列国家,经济和军事力量至关重要的卓越技术。
沙特阿拉伯正在AI立法和法规中前进
除了长期的战略计划和教育投资外,法规是AI政策的另一个重要组成部分。这些法规对于解决与技术使用相关的挑战是必要的,其中一些尚未完全理解。一个这样的挑战是AI中存在的固有偏见,可能会使刻板印象和歧视永久存在。38在过去的一年中,许多国家与Biden Administration对AI政策的方法保持一致,该政策促进了AI的负责任和值得信赖的发展,同时维护技术创新。拜登(Biden)关于道德和有效AI使用的政策在2023年10月发布的总统行政命令中被正式制定。39但是,新的特朗普政府撤销了这一命令,赞成与美国第一政策一致的美国战略至高无上的优先级。无论如何,以色列监管机构必须认识到,对人工智能研究,发展和公司的形成实施过度严格的法规可能会扼杀创新,并阻碍以色列excels的技术企业家精神的进步。
在这些问题之间达到平衡的一种解决方案是使用指定的沙箱40``可控环境,允许技术公司在商业化之前开发和测试新产品和服务。这些沙盒鼓励创新,同时最大程度地减少与侵犯隐私有关的潜在风险。2024年,国家电子学习中心和沙特阿拉伯卫生部推出了这样的沙箱,以促进AI在教育和医疗保健中的使用。41其他国家,例如法国和英国,42还推出了沙箱。全球经验表明,它们是加深对AI和隐私问题之间界面的理解的有效工具。43
尽管以色列以前建立了一个沙箱来检查自动运输解决方案,但截至2024年5月,将其扩展到其他部门的立法努力却失败了。44在此背景下,由科学部于2023年12月发布的以色列关于AI法规的政策提议扩大使用沙箱安全地将新的AI系统整合到市场中的情况。45由于沙特阿拉伯已经多次利用这种机制来促进负责任的技术发展,因此它可能会为如何建立和操作这些沙箱提供宝贵的见解。
总之,沙特阿拉伯不仅表达了雄心勃勃的愿景,可以在AI中实现全球统治地位,而且还以系统和全面的方式追求其实施。通过制定和采用促进创新的法规,从小就开始发展熟练的AI劳动力的大量投资,以及确保数据存储库质量的努力,王国将自己定位在全球AI政策的最前沿。现在,它处于重大经济和技术突破的边缘。
AI合作的相互利益
以色列已经被认为是AI技术强国,有可能维持其在该领域的地位,尤其是考虑到其最近的全球排名下降,在AI领导层中从第5位下降到第9位。46如果以色列从沙特阿拉伯的经验中学习,并采用了王国制定和实施AI政策原则的方法,它可能会扭转这一趋势。从沙特阿拉伯的角度来看,AI整合对于使其经济多样化,减少石油依赖,加速了重大的经济和社会改革以及加强其地缘政治地位至关重要。
王储穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼(Mohammed bin Salman)认为以色列的高级技术领域是自由市场可以授予沙特阿拉伯的切实福利的模型,尤其是在推动技术创新和推进Neom等旗舰项目时。47这种观点使以色列技术和专业知识吸引了王国以及对与以色列关系正常化的其他海湾国家。它不仅反映了从以色列在水资源管理等领域中受益的愿望,而且更广泛地认识到,加深与以色列的合作是确保作为区域技术领导者地位的关键。48在战争之前,沙特阿拉伯表现出愿意通过王室控制的公共投资基金(PIF)投资于两家以色列技术公司时,这种前景尤其明显。这些投资是通过贾里德·库什纳(Jared Kushner)拥有的亚伯拉罕协议(Abraham Accords)建筑师之一拥有的Affinity Partners Fund进行的。49
获得以色列技术特别先进的防空系统的重要性50沙特阿拉伯的战略转变强调了解决对王国造成重大破坏的胡塞空中威胁的战略转变。以前,沙特阿拉伯采取了对胡希斯的进攻政策,但在2023年至2024年之间,它转向停火,以减少其军事纠缠并优先考虑经济发展。51战略转变部分是驱动的52由于对关键基础设施的战争造成的高财务成本和损失。结果,王国实施2030年愿景和进步经济改革的努力削弱了。成功拦截了2024年4月和10月10日对以色列的伊朗导弹袭击,进一步强调了强大的防空防御能力,这一成就成为了先进的防空系统和该地区亲美军联盟伙伴之间的紧密合作。
可以假定沙特阿拉伯寻求美国的类似安全保证53应对伊朗及其代理提出的区域安全挑战。这样的保证将使王国能够专注于2030年愿景的实施。54正常化过程的另一个核心部分是沙特阿拉伯从美国获得核能力,以阻止伊朗获得核武器。55甚至在以色列 - 哈马斯战争之前,以色列同意将核能力转移到沙特阿拉伯作为正常化进程的一部分的可能性引起了该国公众,军事专家和高级政治家的关注。56许多人担心这样的举动可能会引发中东核武器竞赛,威胁到以色列的安全。
美国官员也表达了以色列的担忧,他们提议对美国对沙特阿拉伯的核能力发展施加限制,同时呼吁对任何此类合作努力进行仔细监督。57拜登政府作为更广泛的正常化过程和反对伊朗的区域战略的一部分进行了研究,但特朗普的政策尚不清楚。关于第一个特朗普政府的开箱即用的思考,意外地导致了2020年的亚伯拉罕协定。因此,第二届特朗普政府可能会通过通过AI提供军事增强来实现沙特的创造性解决方案,以绕过或减轻沙特的核能力。
以色列可以与特朗普政府合作鼓励沙特阿拉伯朝这个方向发展,从而利用其无与伦比的全球经验将AI用于军事目的,就像加沙战争期间一样。福音系统,58由IDF在2021年推出,通过通过分析从Internet和蜂窝网络收集的言语和视觉智能来确定潜在的目标,帮助IDF的主要信号情报单元(IDF)的主要信号情报单元。在冲突期间,该系统的使用帮助IDF确定了37,000个目标59基于多个标准。此外,还采用了AI驱动的地面工具来绘制Hamas构建的复杂隧道系统。60该技术已集成到Merkava Mark 4``Barakâ储罐''中,以识别罢工目标。61IDF还利用了基于AI的面部识别系统在加沙过境点检测哈马斯特工,试图与平民撤离冲突地区融为一体。62因此,在推进一项美国 - 以色列倡议方面,以支持沙特阿拉伯开发基于AI的武器系统的倡议。
基于人工智能的武器系统具有重大的防御和进攻优势63这可能部分抵消了开发和维护核武器的需求。在进攻方面,AI系统还能够从各种来源处理大量的实时智能,以确定关键的敌方资产,例如供应线,通信渠道和制造工厂。然后,这些系统可以在几分钟之内精确地部署AI引导的无人机和导弹,以最大程度地减少附带损害。在防御方面,可以部署基于AI的传感器和防空系统,以快速有效地检测和拦截空中威胁。这些能力结合在一起,可以增强沙特阿拉伯的威慑能力,并增强对伊朗的军事优势。
然而,正常化的进步仍然充满了障碍。一个挑战是伊朗与沙特阿拉伯之间的新外交关系。The restoration of ties between the two countries in 2023, after being severed since 2016, was followed by a joint military exercise in the Gulf of Oman in 2024.64Additionally, subsequent meetings between senior officials and military leaders from both countries have further complicated regional dynamics.65Another stumbling block is internal opposition within Saudi Arabia, particularly among the younger generation, many of whom support the Palestinian cause or are influenced by religious sentiments.Furthermore, Israelâs current right-wing government, which firmly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state, has also impeded the normalization process.
The continued use of Saudi airspace by Israeli and foreign commercial airlines during the war, along with the establishment of a secret commercial corridor linking Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel to circumvent the maritime blockade imposed by the Houthi militia in the Red Sea, further reinforces the possiblity of Saudi-Israel normalization.
(shutterstock)
However, the ongoing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is expected to persist, simmering beneath the surface despite the diplomatic thaw.This shift appears to be more of a tactical move than a genuine diplomatic transformation.The measures the Saudi regime has taken to fundamentally alter the cultural and religious attitudes that fuel opposition to Israelâs recognition66indicate that normalization should not be ruled out.The continued use of Saudi airspace by Israeli and foreign commercial airlines during the war, along with the establishment of a secret commercial corridor linking Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel to circumvent the maritime blockade imposed by the Houthi militia in the Red Sea,67further reinforces this possibility.These developments have taken place despite the Kingdomâs sharp condemnation of Israel during the Israel-Hamas war,68a move intended as a political gesture of support for the Palestinians.
Trade relations and technological collaborations between Israel and Arab statesâthough reduced in scopeâhave endured despite the war, leaving room for hope.Moroccoâs intention to purchase an Israeli reconnaissance satellite worth one billion dollars underscores the resilience of these renewed ties69Similarly, the launch of the Crystal Ball platform by Israelâs and the UAEâs national cybersecurity agencies in November 2024 to share intelligence and research on cyber threats serves as another indication.70 These developments demonstrate that Israeli technological innovation remains a strong global brand, even as the countryâs political and public image has suffered in the wake of the war.
Trumpâs 2025 return to the White House, along with the appointment of key pro-Israel and hawkish figures on Iran, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio,71may breathe new life into the normalization process once the war subsides.A series of regional developments could further accelerate this trend: the impending ceasefire agreement in Lebanon;Israelâs military strikes against two of Iranâs prominent proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas;the fall of the Assad regime in Syria;and the destruction of Iranâs air defense systems, including the weakening of its nuclear weapons development capabilities.Normalization, therefore, carries not only economic, technological, and social significance;it could also serve as the foundation for a historic shift in the regional balance of powerâone that favors moderate, pragmatic countries that champion innovation, education, and technology over extremism.
Furthermore, cooperation in AI between Israel and Saudi Arabia would support President Trumpâs vision of achieving U.S. dominance in this critical field.Israel, a global leader in technological innovation, and Saudi Arabia, which aspires to become a regional technology hub, could both play a pivotal role in creating the strategic corridor linking Asia and Europe via the Middle East.This corridor, which began to take shape under the Biden administration, could gain renewed momentum under Trumpâs leadership, especially with Elon Muskâs central role in the administration.
The involvement of Israel and Saudi Arabia in AI initiatives under Trumpâs presidency wouldbolster the U.S. effort to achieve technological dominance, particularly against China, its main rival in this arena.Thus, cooperation between the three countries would not only advance their national interests but also contribute to a global effort to ensure that the United States remains a leader in AI.
Ofir Barelis a researcher at the Yuval Neâeman Workshop for Science, Technology, and Security at Tel Aviv University.His work focuses on cybersecurity strategies, artificial intelligence policy, and information warfare.
Doron Feldmanrecently earned his PhD in political science from the School of Political Science, Government, and International Affairs at Tel Aviv University.His research examines the strategies of small, threatened states, with a particular focus on their use of technology in the realms of national security and international relations.He currently leads the National Cyber Policy Research Program at the Yuval Neâeman Workshop for Science, Technology, and Security.In fall 2025, he will begin a postdoctoral fellowship at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas at Austin.
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