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U.S. Economy: AI Mania, Fed Policy, And Q4 Market Risks (SPX)

2025-09-29 05:49:13 英文原文

Summary

  • AI is a cross-sector megatrend, driving growth in tech, construction, and energy, with data center spending now surpassing new office construction.
  • Intel receives a strategic $5B investment from Nvidia and US government support, aiming to revitalize its foundry business and reduce reliance on Asian foundries.
  • Despite strong economic data and a resilient market, high valuations and seasonal volatility warrant a diversified portfolio with defensive stocks and ample liquidity.
  • A balanced 25% equities, 25% bonds, 25% cash, and 25% gold portfolio is outperforming the traditional 60/40 split, offering better protection in today's environment.
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Here are some figures:

  1. AI-related stocks contributed to 75% of the S&P 500's returns,
  2. 80% of earnings growth, and
  3. 90% of capital expenditure growth since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.

But

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPX, NDX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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摘要

AI drives growth across tech, construction, and energy sectors with data center spending overtaking new office construction. Intel secures a $5B strategic investment from Nvidia and the U.S. government to bolster its foundry business. Despite robust economic indicators, high valuations and seasonal market volatility suggest a diversified portfolio including defensive stocks and liquidity is prudent. A balanced 25% equities, 25% bonds, 25% cash, and 25% gold portfolio outperforms the traditional 60/40 split in providing protection. Since ChatGPT's launch, AI-related stocks have contributed to 75%, 80%, and 90% of S&P 500 returns, earnings growth, and capital expenditure growth respectively.

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