Artificial intelligence hasn't yet triggered the broad job losses many feared — at least not for experienced workers.

That's the takeaway from a new analysis by J. Scott Davis, an assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who examined employment and wage trends in industries most exposed to artificial intelligence.

Davis argues the data tell a more nuanced story — one that's challenging the traditional career ladder, and helping older employees earn a bit more.

Since ChatGPT's debut in late 2022, overall US employment has risen about 2.5%, according to Davis' analysis, which uses an AI exposure index developed by researchers and published in the Strategic Management Journal. At the same time, employment in the sectors most exposed to AI has slipped by roughly 1%.

Wages tell a different story. The average weekly pay nationwide has climbed 7.5% since fall 2022. And across the most AI-exposed industries, wages have grown faster, up 8.5%.

If AI were simply replacing workers, both employment and wages would likely be falling, Davis wrote.

Instead, Davis points to a divide between "codified" knowledge — the kind learned from textbooks and in university courses — and "tacit" knowledge gained from hands-on work experience.

"Returns on job experience are increasing in AI-exposed occupations," Davis wrote. "Young workers with primarily codifiable knowledge and limited experience will likely face challenging job markets."

Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data, his analysis found that the occupations most exposed to AI tend to offer larger pay premiums for experienced workers.

In roles with less hands-on experience, AI exposure is associated with weaker wage growth, he wrote.

Workers under 25 in AI-exposed industries have also experienced employment declines, according to Davis' analysis.

"There appears to be less cause for concern about widespread job displacement for older, experienced workers," he wrote.

A less dire picture… so far

The findings offer a counterpoint to the more apocalyptic predictions about AI's impact on the labor market.

Last week, Citrini Research published a memo, written from the hypothetical perspective in 2028, that theorized how AI could crush the US jobs market and trigger a broad-based market collapse.

"What if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish?" the memo asked.

Top executives inside the AI companies are worried about jobs, too.

Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, the company that runs Claude, warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level office jobs. OpenAI's head of product, Olivier Godement, said the life sciences, customer service, and computer engineering industries were all about to get automated. And Boris Cherny, the creator of Claude Code, said that he doesn't believe the job title "software engineer" will exist next year.

For now, at least, the Dallas Fed paints a different picture of today's jobs market. It points to less mass displacement and market ruptures — and more power for employees who already have their foot in the door.